When Joondalup revised the Local Housing Strategy in 2012 - 13 to increase the zoning in eight of the ten Housing Opportunity Areas they did not factor Apartments into their potential dwelling calculations.
Nor did they include any dwellings for Mixed Use lots.
That means the number of potential dwellings shown in the Local Housing Strategy for those eight Housing Opportunity Areas is lower than it is likely to be. Joondalup says they expected the uptake rate to be 35% by 2031 but what actually matters is the final uptake rate and if that is 85% and there are many Apartments in the mix then the affected suburbs will be very dense.
Stirling's experience shows that redevelopment won't stop at 35% and that investors like Apartments because it increases the number of dwellings they can fit on a block of land.
The two images below show each HOAs share of the densification and which HOAs bore the brunt of the upzoning.
The image below shows that at an increase in the expected uptake rate to just 60% is enough for the February 2011 Local Housing Strategy to meet Joondalup's Directions 2031 infill dwelling target.
The April 2010 Draft Local Housing Strategy and the February 2011 Approved Local Housing Strategy both used an uptake rate of 35%. The April 2013 Approved Local Housing Strategy used an uptake rate of 85%. The documents in each instance say these uptake rates where set by the Department of Planning.
At an uptake rate of 85% Joondalup's Directions 2031 infill dwelling target of 12,110 was easily met by the Feb 2011 Approved Local Housing Strategy so why was the increase in density necessary.
Who ordered it and why.
Click on images to enlarge